Brodie Van Wagenen’s brief tenure as New York Mets general manager has been highlighted (or lowlighted, depending on your perspective) by his brazen comments essentially daring the media and fans to mock him when they prove to be hyperbolic.

As understandable as it is to expect puffery from a former agent, Van Wagenen places himself directly in the line of fire. Prior to the 2019 season, it was “come get us.” It took until the summer as the Mets were floundering below .500 and well out of playoff contention for him to acknowledge reality with a wan, “They came and got us.”

That the Mets played like the team Van Wagenen dared competitors to come and “get” in the second half did little to erase the memory of the bold and probably wrongheaded swagger. Still, there are two ways for Van Wagenen to go as he sets about formulating the 2020 roster and selling it: proceed cautiously or double down. A gambler by nature, Van Wagenen has chosen the latter with the latest comment that with the additions of Michael Wacha and Rick Porcello, the Mets boast “probably the deepest starting pitching rotation in baseball.”

Obviously, that’s a difficult statement to quantify and comparing the rotation to the rest of Major League Baseball would take a significant amount of time and be a relatively futile effort. That said, it can be useful to assess the comment in the context of the Mets’ competitors in the National League East.

New York Mets

1. Jacob deGrom
2. Noah Syndergaard
3. Marcus Stroman
4. Steven Matz
5. Rick Porcello
6. Michael Wacha

DeGrom is incomparable as the team’s ace. Since Gerrit Cole’s massive $324 million deal with the New York Yankees, speculation has centered around whether deGrom regrets having signed his $137.5 million extension precluding his free agency after the 2020 season. The two-time reigning NL Cy Young Award winner is one of the best if not the best pitcher in baseball.

Syndergaard was negatively impacted by multiple factors in 2019. He has largely failed to reach his massive potential despite being very good much of the time. Complaints about failing to get on the same page with catcher Wilson Ramos drew headlines; the Mets listened to trade offers before pulling him off the market. Van Wagenen said he’s not getting traded. With the allure of the Cole contract, the Mets can hope that Syndergaard will be supremely motivated in his final two years under team control. Changes to the ball will undoubtedly benefit him.

Matz has had back-to-back seasons of 30 starts. While he seems to have failed to live up to his potential, but for four atrocious starts in 2019, he was highly reliable as a mid-rotation starter.

Stroman was acquired in a stunning trade deadline move by Van Wagenen and the Mets surrendered what was roundly assessed as a “that’s it?” return to the Toronto Blue Jays. He struggled early, but showed his athleticism and fearlessness, eventually settling in with the Mets. He is a free agent after 2020, adding to his incentive to have a big year.

The 2016 American League Cy Young Award winner Porcello has long been a pitcher who gets hit very hard if he doesn’t pinpoint his spots, but provided he has a solid defense and run support, he will win his share of games and log close to 200 innings.

Wacha has struggled with injuries and ineffectiveness since his All-Star season of 2015. That is the only reason he was available to the Mets on a short-term, low-cost deal.

Washington Nationals

1. Stephen Strasburg
2. Max Scherzer
3. Patrick Corbin
4. Anibal Sanchez
5. Erick Fedde
6. Joe Ross

After the Nationals World Series win, Strasburg opted out of his contract. As expected he re-signed with the Nationals on a 7-year, $245 million deal. The argument could be made that Anthony Rendon, now departed for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, was a better long-term investment. But Strasburg is the face of the franchise. He’s outlasted Bryce Harper and now Rendon. Perhaps not the history-making starter that fit his hype and draft status, he’s still a great pitcher.

Scherzer has lived up to the then-questionable $210 million contract and is a sure-fire Hall of Famer. Still, he’s 35 and has a lot of wear on his tires. His hard work will keep him competitive, but it’s not out of bounds to wonder if he can maintain the standard he set for himself.

Corbin would be a minimum number two starter on most teams. With the Nationals, he’s their number three. He provided everything the club expected when it signed him to a $145 million free agent contract.

Sanchez has made a career of being injured and fading, looking to be in the last throes of a notable career only to rejuvenate himself. His has no-hit stuff when he’s on. But he will be 36 in February. Just like Scherzer, age could be an issue with him.

The rotation is rounded out by the injury-plagued Joe Ross and the unproven and fading prospect Erick Fedde.

Atlanta Braves

1. Mike Soroka
2. Mike Foltynewicz
3. Max Fried
4. Cole Hamels
5. Sean Newcomb

Soroka blossomed as a star at age 21 and had a brilliant start in the National League Division Series. Provided he remains healthy, he will front the Braves rotation for a long time.

After Foltynewicz’s 2018 breakout, he had such a terrible beginning to 2019 that he was sent to Triple-A. When he was recalled in August, he regained his form. He’s a solid number three who is slotted as a number two, which could be a problem.

Fried, a former first-round draft pick of the San Diego Padres, was a pleasant surprise and became one of the Braves’ most reliable arms. He’s best-suited to be a backend starter despite above-average stuff.

The veteran Hamels signed a one-year deal after a solid, but unspectacular, year with the imploding Chicago Cubs. He missed time with an oblique injury and a shoulder injury. At age 36, it’s unfair to expect top-of-the-rotation quality, but he’s still a solid arm and a reliable postseason performer.

Newcomb had established himself as a solid starter in 2018, but was shifted to the bullpen in 2019 where he was effective. He can lose the strike zone and is a mid-to-backend starter.

The Braves have lost Dallas Keuchel and Julio Teheran from their 2019 staff.

Philadelphia Phillies

1. Aaron Nola
2. Zack Wheeler
3. Jack Arrieta
4. Vince Velasquez
5. Zack Eflin

Nola is an ace who, after his Cy Young-caliber season in 2018, struggled early in 2019. He and the other starting pitchers never seemed entirely comfortable with former manager Gabe Kapler’s micromanaging and frequent use of defensive shifts. With Joe Girardi now in command, it will be a calmer atmosphere of “this guy knows what he’s doing.” Nola is a top-15 pitcher in baseball.

The enigmatic Wheeler got $118 million to defect from the Mets to the Phillies. As gifted as Wheeler is, there is always the fear that he will lose command of the strike zone and never fully harness his superstar stuff. The Mets did not believe he was worth the money the Phillies paid him – Van Wagenen basically said it. In a home run-friendly park and under the intense scrutiny of the boo-happy Phillies fans, he’s no guarantee.

Arrieta had elbow surgery and clashed with Kapler. Despite the hiring of Girardi and Arrieta presumably fully healthy, it might be unreasonable to expect him to have a renaissance to his heyday from the Chicago Cubs days, but he’s a solid number three or four.

Velasquez has immense ability, but has been sabotaged by injuries, inconsistency and a lack of durability. Eflin has shown flashes, but is prone to the home run ball and is a number five starter.

Miami Marlins

1. Sandy Alcantara
2. Caleb Smith
3. Pablo Lopez
4. Jordan Yamamoto
5. Robert Dugger
6. Elieser Hernandez

Team president Derek Jeter has taken justified criticism for his sometimes-clumsy handling of the transition from iconic player to steering the ship for a billion-dollar entity. That said, the Marlins have taken incrementally positive steps including the decision to retain the diligent Don Mattingly as manager – admittedly at a pay cut – rather than hire an automaton who would work cheaply for the opportunity, and the overhauling of the farm system. This is indicative of progress and that Jeter is learning as he goes.

Regarding their starting rotation, it does not have the high-priced, notable names its NL East competitors do, but there is some impressive talent there.

Alcantara, acquired from the St. Louis Cardinals in the Marcell Ozuna trade, has impressed with a mid-90s fastball and solid changeup. Once he harnesses his stuff and his command to reduce the walks, he has All-Star potential.

Smith was acquired from the Yankees, ostensibly for international bonus money and has become a tough assignment for NL hitters with a grunting intensity and an average of 10 strikeouts per 9 innings.

Lopez, Yammamoto, Dugger and Hernandez are younger prospects with potentially bright futures. Lopez has no-hit stuff.

They’re not in the conversation with the Mets or the other NL East clubs in terms of depth, but they’re on the right track.

So, is Van Wagenen right?

Without getting into existentialism, interpretation, subtext and agendas, was Van Wagenen inaccurate with his exact words and what was his intention?

The key here is taking literally what Van Wagenen said and not putting words in his mouth. He did not say the “best.”  He said the “deepest.” There’s a difference. Turning back time to 2016, there would be no question that the Mets have perhaps the deepest rotation in baseball and even arguably the best. But it’s about to be 2020. Van Wagenen is partially trolling, partially strutting, partially playing liar’s poker, and doing things that agents do to boost the perception of their clients.

In looking at the literal nature of the statement he made and comparing it to his NL East competition, he might be right.

The Gerrit Cole free agent tour took the tone of a fabricated monster whose creators were irrationally convinced they could control it only to see it grow in strength and power, ignoring its prime directive and becoming self-aware, destroying everything in its path.

It sounds like the plot of a terrible movie. Or a good movie. Or somewhere in between.

That monster is set to take its talents to New York with the news breaking late Tuesday that the New York Yankees signed Cole to a 9-year, $324 million contract. They essentially saved themselves from the aforementioned film treatment expanding to George Steinbrenner rising from the grave to unleash untold terror on his sons and Brian Cashman.

With every free agent, there are rumors and reality. Cole’s foray onto the market was exponentially worse in part because he was the biggest name out there and is at the top of his game. But, also because several teams have abandoned the pseudo-collusion that has negatively impacted free agency and sown discord among the players and agents with concerns that baseball front offices have formulated a strategy to collude. Albeit, without being as clumsy and arrogant as the owners were in the mid-1980s which led to lawsuits and massive settlements.

The objectivity of statistics are the collusive aspects and they’re difficult to dispute. Since every team is essentially using the same tactics to craft their rosters, there is a value they place on a player and refuse to go beyond it. That might have kept Cole’s number reasonable had he been a free agent one year ago. Not anymore.

There has been a paradigm shift for several teams just as Cole hit free agency. Two prime examples are the Philadelphia Phillies and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Both clubs moved away from the adherence to the numbers and sticking to a blueprint with unquestioning trust on the baseball people and their analytics departments. Both situations changed when ownership said enough was enough and became heavily involved.

The Phillies essentially usurped the power of general manager Matt Klentak by firing his handpicked manager, Gabe Kapler, with whom he was on the same identical page. Then hiring the older school Joe Girardi who, it could be argued, has essentially become the de facto GM with the ear of principal owner John Middleton. The signings of Zack Wheeler and Didi Gregorius so far practically prove it.

The Angels have floundered as GM Billy Eppler sought to rebuild the dilapidated farm system. Tired of accepting mediocrity and wasting Mike Trout’s prime years, owner Arte Moreno clearly took control with the firing of manager Brad Ausmus and the hiring of former Angels coach and interim manager Joe Maddon. Hiring Maddon comes with the obvious promise to give him a team he can win with. That means spending. And it meant pursuing the best arm on the market: Cole.

Throughout the process, the Yankees were perceived as creeping back to the past as well with it uncertain how deeply they were willing to dig into the vault. The club had taken major steps to abandon the Steinbrenner patriarch’s model of having a star-studded cast fit for a Broadway extravaganza. Sure, they still spend, but it’s judicious spending and the Steinbrenner sons must be convinced to go beyond their preferred spending limits and the dreaded luxury tax thresholds.

Shunning the likes of Bryce Harper, the Yankees’ roster was largely homegrown with signings and trades who fit in rather than brought the star with them as Reggie Jackson did. Regular season success aside, 100+ wins in back to back years is not good enough in the Bronx if the team loses in the playoffs. Having fallen short in their attempts to win the organization’s 28th World Series title in a drought that is now a decade long, they were reportedly all-in on Cole.

Revered baseball writer and insider emeritus Peter Gammons was the most overt regarding his belief that Cole will – not might, will – end up with the Yankees.

Gerrit Cole will go into New York for his age 29 season, and in 2018 averaged 102 pitches in 33 starts, didn’t get to 100 in a third of them, got the ‘Stros to the 7th 29 times, did not go past 113 Ps until his high of 118 in Game 1 vs. Tampa.

— Peter Gammons (@pgammo) December 7, 2019

Other reporters and bloggers were more circumspect, but still braved the toxic depths of the Hudson River to seek nuggets to suggest Cole would shun his Southern California roots and perceived preference to go back to the West Coast and sign with the Yankees.

Would Cole go to the Yankees? The Angels? The Dodgers? The ever-elusive and predictable “mystery team” that Jon Heyman brought up on Tuesday?

The answer was what the answer always is: follow the money.

The stars certainly aligned for Cole and agent Scott Boras to secure that record-shattering contract. Much of that was due to another Boras client, Stephen Strasburg. Strasburg re-signed with the Washington Nationals with a 7-year, $245 million contract. The financial parameters for Cole – two years younger and better than Strasburg – were cemented there and then.

Cole having been traded from the Pittsburgh Pirates to the Houston Astros multiplied his price as he evolved from a struggling but gifted hurler into one of the top three pitchers in baseball and a strikeout machine. Had he been traded anywhere else, it’s difficult to envision him having improved so markedly.

Desperation and ownership involvement with the big money teams like the Angels gave him a fallback that might not have existed a year or two ago when club owners were following the plan with financial sanity for the greater good. That the Yankees, Angels and possibly the Dodgers are three of the most well-heeled clubs in baseball and were willing to spend that money gave Cole three known suitors to play against each other.

Boras could do the rest with implications that there were other teams – secret teams – who were set to jump in. He could tell the Yankees that his client was willing to go to the East Coast, cut his hair, shave his beard and fall in line…if their offer is worth his while.

If the Yankees were under the impression they would get Cole for the rumored $245 million that was said to be their initial offer, any limit on Cole’s financial goals were detonated when Strasburg signed. If Cole was thinking $300 million, that rose to $324 million plus incentives. And he got it.

That’s the market. Cole didn’t set it, but he took advantage of it. Circumstances and fortuitous timing helped him do it.