Regardless of the polarizing professional and personal image of San Diego Padres general manager A.J. Preller, there needs to be a certain amount of grudging admiration for how he has kept his job, maintained control of the organization, and adhered to his design.

The Padres’ rebuild is now heading into year six with no tangible success in the one area that truly counts: wins and losses. Prior to him taking charge in August 2014, the Padres had one winning season since 2007. They still have had one winning season since 2007.

A gutting of the system he inherited commenced and big names were acquired. With Melvin and Justin Upton, James Shields, Craig Kimbrel, Wil Myers and Matt Kemp added to the existing core, the Padres were a Hot Stove champion of 2014-15. As the team looked listless, patched together and indifferent through mid-season, Preller did a 180 and sold, sold, sold.

That’s his skill: selling. It’s the only explanation for him being on his fourth manager including Bud Black, in place and retained when Preller arrived. Most GMs get to hire two managers. It’s the only explanation for ownership letting him spend big on Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado when the rebuild was incomplete.

Preller could get the San Diego populace to buy snow blowers, making it risky to say that this time – this time – it’s his final chance to see his vision come to its fruition with a legitimate contender. When manager Andy Green was dismissed, there was talk that ownership wanted someone with a track record. Speculation centered around a reunion with longtime Padres manager Bruce Bochy as he retired from the San Francisco Giants. Other names included Joe Maddon, Joe Girardi, Buck Showalter and Ron Washington. However, Preller crony Jayce Tingler was given the nod.

Tingler has limited minor-league managing experience, was a coach for the Texas Rangers, worked in their front office and is familiar to Preller from their time working together in Texas. It was an outside the box hire to everyone but the Padres GM, who prefers familiarity and congruent thinking to name recognition and placating the media and fans.

This is laudable. Whether it is wise will be determined by how the young players develop and that’s how Preller will and should be judged. Hosmer and Machado are knowns. Fernando Tatis Jr. can also be categorized as a known. It’s safe to say that Chris Paddack is a top-of-the-rotation starter. Their roster is sprinkled with raw talent.

Increased aggressiveness include signing Drew Pomeranz to a 4-year, $34 million contract; trading pitcher Eric Lauer and highly-touted infielder Luis Urias to the Milwaukee Brewers for starting pitcher Zach Davies and outfielder Trent Grisham; acquiring infielder Jurickson Profar from the Oakland Athletics; and acquiring Tommy Pham from the Tampa Bay Rays for outfielder Hunter Renfroe with prospects also being exchanged.

Again, these maneuvers are in line with Preller’s preferences. But it cannot be dismissed that the team has yet to come close to finishing at or above .500 during his reign. It’s undeniable that salesmanship has been his main attribute as he maintained his power and accruing prospects for the Padres to be at or near the top of the relatively meaningless minor-league rankings. Now, there appears to be a “might as well let him finish and see what happens” nihilistic argument to let him complete his work. It could be a masterpiece or it could be a disaster. There is no in-between.

It’s diabolical, if that was indeed his intent.

All this must be headed toward a destination and it’s not hoping everything falls into place so maybe they can contend. They need to contend and that time of contention is no longer someday. It’s now. It’s in 2020. And that means they must enter the season with a legitimate shot at overtaking the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers have won the last seven National League West titles. They have resources that dwarf the Padres’. Their farm system is excellent, they’re aggressive, creative and can buy their way out of mistakes.

Still, there is an opening if and only if the young players who have been the basis of the annual “just wait” regarding the Padres’ future arrive and fulfill that potential. That means outfielder Taylor Trammell and pitchers MacKenzie Gore and Luis Patiño can’t just present themselves as big leaguers in 2020, but they must boost the foundation already in place. They also need an established veteran starting pitcher like Madison Bumgarner to guide the youngsters, show them what it truly takes to contend for and win a championship, and bring a visceral hatred of the Dodgers.

Contrary to popular belief, the Dodgers are vulnerable. As successful as they have been, they might need some structural changes based on age and apathy – the prototypical bomb dropped in the clubhouse. The incremental decline of Clayton Kershaw appears to be speeding up.

They have been rumored to have interest in Anthony Rendon, Stephen Strasburg and Gerrit Cole, which would either mean trading Justin Turner to free up salary or moving him to first base, trading other costly contracts of Kenley Jansen, Joc Pederson and Joe Kelly. In addition, as glossy as manager Dave Roberts’ record is during his four-year tenure, complete with two pennants, strategic gaffes have pockmarked his reputation. Yet he’s still there and going nowhere. He is not an asset.

In the NL West, the Colorado Rockies are in flux, the Arizona Diamondbacks are transitioning, and the Giants are in the middle of a rebuild of their own. That leaves the Padres as the main threat to the Dodgers. For them to function and succeed as the upstart, they must get the expected development from those young players along with the practical contributions; they must have their stars serve as stars; they must add tactically and with an eye on that goal of immediate contention; and their managerial pick must prove to have been the right one.

The door is open a crack, but the future cannot be a distant planet they would someday like to visit. It must be now. Preller’s job is (probably…maybe) depending on it.

The New York Mets and general manager Brodie Van Wagenen flirted seriously with trading Noah Syndergaard at the July 31 trade deadline. With the club floundering at three games below .500, out of the race for the National League East and behind several teams for a Wild Card spot, part of a moderate teardown with an eye toward contending in 2020 was listening to offers for Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler.

Taking offers for Wheeler, a pending free agent, made sense. Syndergaard was more complicated. A reasonable question to ask was why the Mets, hoping to contend and with a 27-year-old power arm under team control for two more seasons, would even think about trading Syndergaard. A simple explanation is that he would yield the biggest return based on those very factors. Still, it’s understandable to stop and wonder if there are underlying issues that teams would not see until they unwrap the box to play with their shiny new toy.

Rather than trade anyone other than the superfluous (Jason Vargas), the Mets instead chose to add by acquiring Marcus Stroman from the Toronto Blue Jays. With the very real prospect of losing Wheeler, a Syndergaard trade left them with not one but two giant holes to fill in their starting rotation for 2020.

For the Mets and Syndergaard, it’s not as simple as one answer as to why they’ve headed in this direction. There is a combination of factors that made him available to begin with and led to the Mets, according to a Van Wagenen pronouncement that he would not be traded, ultimately deciding to retain him for 2020.

The free agent market for starting pitchers is relatively flush, but the Mets’ holes are many and given the contracts already on the books, their financial wiggle room is limited. Unless a team caved to their demands – think Forrest Whitley and Kyle Tucker from the Houston Astros – it made precious little sense to deal Syndergaard. Had they signed Wheeler to an extension at the deadline as they tried to do, either they would not have traded for Stroman or they would have traded Syndergaard, likely the latter.

Syndergaard can be a handful. He speaks his mind. He is out and about in New York City, enjoying the attention he attracts with his 6’6” frame and long blonde mane. On the field, it’s not as obvious that his ceiling is as limitless as was once believed. He surrenders an inordinate number of hits for a pitcher with his power arsenal; his command has been lacking; and his complaints about Wilson Ramos’ framing skills and overall defense sounded eerily close to blaming everyone – Ramos, the organization for pairing him with Ramos, the tightly wound baseballs – other than himself.

In the positive category, FanGraphs has the average velocity of his fastball at 97.7 mph; the rise in home runs and reduction in velocity and movement on his slider could easily have been attributed to the changes to the baseball itself; and he did come within 2.1 innings of reaching 200 for the first time in his career.

Obviously, the relationship had reached a nadir as the Mets listened to trade offers. It was leaked that Syndergaard was unhappy with Ramos’ defense and the Mets paired him with Ramos anyway. Now, with the Mets telling teams he’s no longer available, clearly the sides came together and reached a détente for the foreseeable future. Regardless of all other considerations, with the still unsettled situation of Wheeler and the reality that the Mets are not signing Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Madison Bumgarner or any of the big names from other teams, they need Syndergaard’s innings even if they’re attached to 2019’s up and down performance. Unless a comparable pitcher was coming back in the Syndergaard trade as well as top-tier prospects to sweeten it, how can they trade him and sell an idea that they’re trying to win in 2020 or that it’s best for the organization to deal him?

For Syndergaard’s part, a trade could benefit him if he’s sent to the right place as Cole was. But Cole might have remained the enigmatic and frustrating entity he was at the tail end of his tenure with the Pirates had he been traded to the Yankees instead of the Astros. Now, after two masterful seasons in Houston, Cole is set to receive between $35 million and $40 million annually. Syndergaard knows that. There is a chance, however, that if the Mets trade him, he could wind up in a locale that is unappealing to him professionally and boring personally. A bored Syndergaard could cause more trouble than he’s worth.

For the benefit of the club and the player, they are staying together in a marriage of convenience. Each can get what they want and then amicably split when the time comes. It’s the logical conclusion and best for all parties if they stick to that script, which by statement and action, they appear primed to do.