Arguably the best all-around third baseman in baseball, the availability of the Colorado Rockies’ Nolan Arenado is the best option for teams with a need at that position. Especially those teams with the need and also missed out on Anthony Rendon. Assuming, of course, those same potential suitors view Josh Donaldson’s age and eventual decline as a prohibitive factor in going beyond a certain number of years and dollars to sign him.

Chicago Cubs’ third baseman Kris Bryant will have a similar line of suitors as Arenado, but the sticking point of his service time grievance against the club is a hindrance. Teams will not know how long they will have him under team control should they trade for him. That is not an issue with Arenado as his cost and contract are known, expensive though they may be.

It might be surprising that the Rockies are entertaining trade offers for Arenado less than a year after signing him to an 8-year, $260 million contract extension. However, after consecutive playoff seasons in 2017 and 2018, the club fell back to 71-91 and 35 games behind the National League West champion Los Angeles Dodgers. With the division strong and Arenado holding an opt-out after 2021, it does make sense that they would consider a retool for prospects and salary relief by trading their most marketable asset, Arenado.

Jon Morosi said the following on Twitter:

Sources: Nolan Arenado has roughly a 50/50 chance of being traded, with a half-dozen teams having checked in, as I just reported on @MLBNetwork. The #Dodgers are *not* the most likely destination, as #Rockies prefer not to trade Arenado in the division. @MLB

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) January 2, 2020

Still, it is not a slam dunk that a third baseman-hungry team should pay the exorbitant cost for Arenado, no matter how great he is. The longtime fear of players who made their name in the light air of Colorado has dissipated to a degree, but it still exists.

For Arenado, there is a drastic disparity in his home/away stats, but the away stats are still impressive with a .799 career OPS. His defense is unparalleled. He would certainly be a great player wherever he is. But is it wise to give up the assets the Rockies would need to quell the anger in the fan base for trading him? To absorb that contract? To surrender the prospects while knowing that barring a catastrophe, Arenado will opt out after two years with his new team?

Teams interested in Arenado come from coast to coast. This too is something to think about as Arenado is from Southern California and might prefer to go closer to home if he needs to accept a deal. Winning is also a priority. With the Washington Nationals, Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, Texas Rangers, Dodgers and others potentially having interest, the benefit of trading for Arenado could be mitigated by the risk.

Any possible trade should be categorized as to what is best for the Rockies; what is best for the acquiring team; and what is best for Arenado.

Best for the Rockies

It needs to be a team who will take the entire contract and surrender the biggest haul including one of the following:

• Two “can’t miss” prospects, plus two good low-level prospects
• One established young player plus two good prospects
• An established, cost-controlled player they can spin off, plus significant young talent.

The Dodgers check most of the boxes, but when adding in the problematic nature of trading him within the division, they would need to sweeten it even further to get the Rockies to pull the trigger. Then there’s the issue of Arenado’s no-trade clause.

The Braves are the best alternative for the Rockies. They have the prospects and they need. As cost-conscious as they are, there is a clear reticence of taking the contract, but that opt out is a shield so perhaps something could be worked out. Plus, it gets him out of the division.

Best for the acquiring team

The Nationals have the biggest need and have made an offer for Donaldson. Arenado’s contract for 2020 and 2021 is for a total of $70 million. They have the money. The opt out could be considered a safety net protecting them from the same long-term commitment they did not want to give to Rendon. If they’re willing to part with Victor Robles, then perhaps they could cobble together a package to get Arenado.

The obvious question will be why they didn’t want to pay their own star, Rendon, and then turned around to trade for Arenado. It’s a reasonable one to ask.

Best for Arenado

He’s from Newport Beach and is a Southern California kid. The Dodgers are his ideal spot. Not only would a trade to Los Angeles likely mitigate the desire to opt out, he’d accept the trade immediately. In addition, the team wins 95 games every year and has a history of renegotiating to preclude an opt out as they did with Clayton Kershaw.

He could certainly force his way to L.A. if the Rockies reach the point of no return, are dead set on trading him and he tells them straight out that he’ll refuse a deal to anywhere but there.

What it boils down to is this: the trading team must surrender a massive collection of players, take the contract, and know that they have him for 2020 and 2021 before needing to re-sign him or letting him walk.

The Rockies started this by floating the idea of trading him after one 90-loss season. Now, they’re somewhat stuck with the clock ticking, some terrible contracts for underperforming relief pitchers, and a hard division where they will likely finish in around the same place with or without Arenado regardless of him being one of the top five players in all of baseball.

Free agent third baseman Josh Donaldson is sifting through offers with the increasing likelihood that he will get the four-year contract he seeks. It is being reported that he already has several deals of that duration in hand. It seems certain that Donaldson will sign with a contending team and get the money and years he’s asking for. Still, there is a risk with signing a player who recently turned 34 for multiple years and nine figures while expecting him to maintain his high-end production through age 38.

Were he five years younger, Donaldson would have received a similar deal to the free agent contract Anthony Rendon got from the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (7-years, $245 million) or what Nolan Arenado received in his contract extension with the Colorado Rockies (8-years, $260 million).

But he’s not.

He’s 34. The days of teams giving massive long-term contracts to players who are 32 and older, for the moment, are gone. Players and agents understand this and have adapted accordingly. No longer are players who have reached the perceived physical peak and are on the way down receiving that last contract taking them to age 40-plus. Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto and Robinson Cano are case studies as to why that is the case.

The “happy medium” seems to be paying the player based on his accomplishments while maintaining some level of sanity. That sunk contract for a player who is 36 to 40 is being avoided, if possible.

Half the teams in baseball could use Donaldson. The New York Mets, for example, would absolutely benefit from installing Donaldson in the middle of their batting order, having his superlative defense at third base, and by keeping him away from his 2019 club, the Atlanta Braves, and one of his prime suitors, the Washington Nationals. But they don’t need him. Jeff McNeil can handle third base; if J.D. Davis advances from terrible to slightly below average at the position, he deserves a spot too; they have yet to find a taker for Jed Lowrie’s contract. When adding in their pending free agents in the next two years – Marcus Stroman, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz and Michael Conforto – the idea of Donaldson makes less sense. They can’t let them all walk and Donaldson’s contract added to Cano’s would be problematic.

Other clubs like the New York Yankees and St. Louis Cardinals are in a comparable circumstance.

It’s clear by now the cost-conscious Braves will not go beyond certain limits to retain Donaldson. The Nationals have the biggest need for him as a replacement for Rendon as they try to defend their World Series title. The Minnesota Twins have sought upgrades, been largely shut out, and apparently offered Donaldson four years. Incumbent third baseman Miguel Sano is a defensive liability and Donaldson is a veteran winner to add to their playoff-hardened veterans Nelson Cruz and Marwin Gonzalez.

The Texas Rangers were in on Rendon, have considered Todd Frazier as a fallback, are going for it with their trade for Corey Kluber, and in 2019 had a patchwork third base plan with Asdrubal Cabrera and Logan Forsythe. Their top prospect, Josh Jung, is a third baseman, but even if he’s fast-tracked, that would be two or so years into Donaldson’s contract. They need an on and off-field replacement for Adrian Beltre, whose presence was sorely missed after his 2018 retirement.

The Philadelphia Phillies have been linked to Bryant and new manager Joe Girardi likes the Donaldson-type of player who’ll police the clubhouse and play in the old-school fashion he prefers.

The Los Angeles Dodgers met with Rendon making L.A. a potential landing spot for Donaldson. Their financial might, reluctance to trade their best prospects for Arenado, the unknown surrounding Kris Bryant as he and the Chicago Cubs address his grievance for being sent to the minors to start his rookie season, the club’s willingness to have players who are seemingly redundant and move them all around the field, their history of paying players like Rich Hill big money at an advanced age, that their clubhouse needs a jolt, and the restlessness over their lack of moves this offseason opens the possibility that they might make a play for Donaldson.

Even with the market in this shape and Donaldson’s attributes, the $90 million-plus price tag is concerning for teams that can afford it or have the wiggle room to move enough money after the signing.

The ideal fit for Donaldson and the signing club is a team that is either on the precipice of being a title contender and needs the on and off-field qualities Donaldson brings, or a team that is trying to put the finishing touches on their championship-caliber roster.

After missing close to a third of the 2017 season and an injury-plagued 2018 notwithstanding, Donaldson has been durable. Those injuries to his calf and shoulder did not impact him for 2019 when he posted a .900 OPS and hit 37 home runs for the National League East champion Braves. However, with any veteran player who was essentially singing for his supper on a one-year deal at age 33, paying him off that year carries inherent concerns. The days of players that age and older who maintained their production or experienced a renaissance ended with the crackdown on PEDs and amphetamines. Age cannot be denied and mitigated anymore.

Donaldson will get paid. He’ll play well for the first two years of the contract. Then, his team could be on the hook for a decline that has become commonplace for older players. As it currently stands, the one spot for which it makes the most sense for Donaldson and the club is the Nationals. The others have options. The Nationals don’t.